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How not to be fooled by a number

Fooled By Numbers

Numbers are polite. They won’t tell you when you use them incorrectly. But polite doesn’t mean forgiving. In 2020, a viral tweet in the US claimed that with the $500 million Michael Bloomberg spent on his presidential campaign, he could have given every American $1 million and still had more than $100 million to spare.

The calculation missed the mark by about 650,000%. The real amount every American would have got from Bloomberg: $1.53. India is no stranger to such numerical facepalms. This section is your guide to avoiding them.

100% fall after 100% rise is…not what you may think

  • You invest ₹100 in a stock. In the first year, it experiences a 100% rise. Your investment is now worth ₹200.
  • In the second year, it suffers a 100% fall. The fall is calculated on the new base of ₹200. A 100% fall of ₹200 is -₹200. You are left with ₹0. You didn’t just return to the start; you lost everything.

Explanation: Percentage changes always depend on the base value from which you start the calculation. A large percentage gain followed by an equally large percentage loss does not bring you back to the starting point because the base for the second calculation has changed.

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